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John Durkan memorial chase

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  • John Durkan memorial chase


  • #2
    John Durkan Chase 2012

    Following this morning’s forfeit stage the nine entries for Sunday's Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Chase are Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar, Rubi Light, Realt Dubh, Blackstairmountain, Bog Warrior, Magnanimity, Quito De La Roque and Blazing Tempo

    Comment


    • #3
      Favourites:

      Flemenstar (steamer1), Sir Des Champs (7/4), Rubi Light (7), Bog Warrior (10), Quito De La Roque (10), Realt Dubh (14), Blackstairmountain (33), Blazing Tempo (33), Magnanimity (50)

      Comment


      • #4
        A compelling clash between two of Ireland's most exciting jumpers is on the cards at Punchestown on Sunday with Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs among the entries for the John Durkan Memorial Chase.

        The former has attracted a huge following, not just for his fine performances in the likes of the Irish Arkle and the Powers Gold Cup, but for the charisma of his trainer Peter Casey.

        He made a sparkling reappearance in the Fortria Chase at Navan and the County Meath trainer's son and assistant Francis said: "Flemenstar is in good order.

        "By the looks of things the ground will be heavy on Sunday but he has won on heavy before.

        "We couldn't have been happier with him at Navan so it's all systems go for Sunday as the Durkan Chase has always been the plan."

        Sir Des Champs, unbeaten in five starts including the Jewson at Cheltenham, is a great hope for the in-form Willie Mullins, who has also engaged Blazing Tempo and

        Blackstairmountain among the nine-strong field.

        Andrew Lynch will be riding Flemenstar, leaving Barry Geraghty to take over on last year's winner Rubi Light, who has not been seen since taking fourth in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April.

        Trainer Robbie Hennessy said: "Rubi Light appears to be in great form. We schooled him last week and couldn't have been happier.

        "This will be his first run of the season, but from what he has shown us, he is ready. Barry Geraghty will take the ride."

        Comment


        • #5
          Sir Des Champs must be a NR ? Paddy Power only talking about two places

          Comment


          • #6
            FLEMENSTAR has been installed as 11-10 favourite with Paddy Power for Sunday's hotly anticipated clash with Sir Des Champs in the Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase.


            Sir Des Champs, twice successful at the Cheltenham Festival but unsighted so far this season, is 13-8 second-favourite with the same firm, although Coral offer 7-4.

            Connections of Flemenstar, who made an impressive seasonal debut in the Fortria Chase at Navan last month, are reportedly happy and trainer Peter Casey's son and assistant Francis said: "Flemenstar is in good order. We will do our final piece of work with him today.

            "By the looks of things the ground will be heavy on Sunday, but he has won on heavy before. We couldn't have been happier with him at Navan so it's all systems go for Sunday as the Durkan has always been the plan."

            The high-class duo were displaced at the head of the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting by Saturday's Hennessy hero Bobs Worth, but the Durkan is likely to bring about further fluctuations in the market.

            Flemenstar is generally available at 8-1 for the Cheltenham showpiece while Sir Des Champs, who is unbeaten over jumps for Willie Mullins and Gigginstown House Stud, is as short as 5-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill.

            Commenting on Coral's decision to install Flemenstar as favourite for Sunday's contest, spokesman David Stevens said: "Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth have displayed their Gold Cup credentials in recent weeks on this side of the Irish Sea.

            "Now Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs meet in what should be another informative race, with the former narrowly preferred with the benefit of a recent run behind him."

            Comment


            • #7
              Kudos for these to racecaller

              The Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Steeplechase takes place on Sunday, 9th December. The best Irish staying chasers of recent times have won this, including Florida Pearl, Beef Or Salmon and Kicking King. This year’s renewal could see two of the most promising Irish chasers of recent times (Flemenstar & Sir Des Champs) clash for the first time.

              Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

              Age (Win-Place-Runners)
              6yo: 4-1-8
              7yo: 2-4-9
              8yo: 3-5-23
              9yo: 1-4-21
              10yo+: 0-1-7
              11yo+: 0-0-4
              Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record is 9-10-40 and have won the last 9.
              Horses aged 9+ have a combined record of 1-5-32. The only winner aged older than 8 was Native Upmanship in 2002, who had finished 1st and 2nd previous 2 years.

              Recent/Past Form
              9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception unseated)
              9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time out (exception unseated)
              10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
              10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
              10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase
              5 of 10 winners had won a Grade 1 chase (5 others finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)
              9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 5 to 14 chases prior to this
              9 of 10 winners (last 9) were second or third season chasers (exception Native Upmanship had finished 1st & 2nd in previous 2 runnings)
              10 of 10 were officially rated 150+

              Other Races
              Previous year's winner (Rubi Light): 5352P (0-1-5)
              Red Mills Chase winner (Rubi Light): 2P21 (1-2-4)
              Naas Directors Plate Novice Chase winner (Flemenstar): 1 (1-0-1)
              Opera Hat Novice Chase winner (Bog Warrior): 1 (1-0-1)
              Irish Arkle winner (Flemenstar): 15 (1-0-2)
              Boylesports Bet On Your Mobile Novice Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 3 (0-1-1)
              Greenmount Park Novice Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 3 (0-1-1)
              Powers Gold Cup winner (Flemenstar): P3F (0-1-3)
              Irish Stallions Farm EBF Novice Chase winner (Flemenstar): 5P (0-0-2)
              Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Blackstairmountain): 45 (0-0-2)
              Fortria Chase winner (Flemenstar): 545 (0-0-3)
              3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 211
              2 of 10 winners ran in Gowran Champion Chase, finishing 13
              2 of 10 winners ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 12
              2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase last time, finishing 2U
              2 of 10 winners ran in Clonmel Oil Chase last time, finishing 21
              2 of 10 winners ran in the Poplar Square Chase last time, finishing 22
              2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Ladbrokes Chase last time, finishing 11
              2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Powers Gold Cup, finishing 22
              7 of 10 winners ran at Cheltenham Festival (2 Arkle, 2 Gold Cup, 2 Ryanair & 1 Queen Mother)
              5 of 10 winners ran at Punchestown Festival (2 Gold Cup, 2 Ryanair Novice & 1 Growise Novice Chase)

              Trainers
              Robert Hennessy (1-0-1) saddled Ruby Light to win this last year.
              Willie Mullins (0-1-8) trained Florida Pearl to win this in 2001 but has gained just 1 place from 8 runners in last 10 years.
              Noel Meade (0-0-6) has seen his 6 runners since 2002 all finish out of the places.

              Price
              10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below
              The last 10 winners all came from the first 4 in the betting.
              Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 2.68.

              Summary:
              Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
              Aged 6 to 8
              Run once or twice this season
              Has run since October
              Finished in first 3 last time, posting RPR of 150+
              Won over 2M 4F or further
              Won a graded chase
              Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
              Second or third season chaser
              Officially rated 150+
              Finished in first 2 in Lexus, Irish Hennessy Gold Cup and/or Powers Gold Cup
              Finished in first 3 in Arkle, Ryanair or Queen Mother at Cheltenham
              Last run in Ladbrokes, Poplar Square, Clonmel Oil or JNWine Champion Chase
              Priced 7/1 or below
              Willie Mullins and Noel Meade have poor recent records in this

              Comment


              • #8
                Rubi Light EW anyone ?

                With respective official ratings of 168 and 162 and prominent positions in the Gold Cup market, it's no surprise to see the second-season chasers Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs dominate the betting for the John Durkan at Punchestown on Sunday. That said, I can't help but feel the pair are a little tight at current odds and are priced up on style rather than substance.

                Flemenstar was impressive on his return at Navan but I suspect he is going to prove best at the minimum trip such is the speed he shows and a slog over two and a half miles may not be what he wants.

                Sir Des Champs is one with stamina but he is likely being trained with later targets in mind; he has peaked in the spring in the last two seasons and while the Mullins-trained pair Zaidpour and Arvika Ligeonniere both won off long breaks last weekend, they likely had the Fairyhouse races as prime targets, while a longer game is being played with Sir Des Champs.

                One horse that can't be said of is Rubi Light who will likely be having his Derby on Sunday; he won the race last year in good style and is a specialist two and a half mile mud-lark.

                Connections would be wasting their time keeping him back for spring targets and he appeals as a win and place back at around 8.0 provided eight or more run.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Barry's Blog

                  REIGNING CHAMP RUBI CAN SEE OFF YOUNG PRETENDERS AT PUNCHESTOWN

                  On Sunday at Punchestown I’m involved in a really good race for the Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase when RUBI LIGHT (2.00) clashes with two of the best two and a half mile novice chasers of last season, Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar.

                  I have respect for Sir Des Champs who’s beat everything that’s been put in front of him but he might not have met a superstar yet. And Flemenstar took a step up last time when he beat my old ally Big Zeb over two miles and has shown good form over further.

                  But I’ve schooled Rubi Light and ridden him work and I know that he’s really well in himself. I’m sure he’ll be better on softer ground than he got when he was beaten seven lengths by Riverside Theatre in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

                  This is his ideal trip on the right ground and I’d be looking for a very big show.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Road to Cheltenham Blog

                    Sandown is a great track for 2m chases, which is why the Tingle Creek has become a mid-season championship event over the minimum trip. This year there’s the mouthwatering prospect of Sanctuaire blazing away over the line of fences in the back straight and trying to take Sprinter Sacre out of his comfort zone.
                    Sprinter Sacre (4/9) was probably the best novice chaser I’ve ever seen when destroying good horses last season. Whilst my guess is Cue Card is better over further, his 26l stroll in the Haldon off 157 suggests he’s high class around the minimum trip. He couldn’t lay a glove on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle despite having an ideal passage and I think Sprinter Sacre is already about a 175 horse. I think he’d have won the Champion Chase had he run in it and he looks exceptional. He was ready to run at the Open meeting so fitness shouldn’t be an issue as it is for some of the Henderson horses first time.

                    He could have been 1/5 but for the presence of Sanctuaire (9/4) who is much more difficult to weigh up, his only meaningful form being in the end of season 2m conditions event here. Four things make me question his chance. Firstly, that was an end of season race where his main rivals may have been a long way from their best. It’s been a dreadful guide to the following season’s 2m chases with only course specialist Twist Magic proving a Grade 1 horse. Secondly, it looked as if the others gave Sanctuaire far too much rope and against a horse with the cruising speed of Sprinter Sacre he won’t get that benefit again here.

                    Thirdly, he’s looked a temperamental sort in the past, (very reluctant to race in the Christmas Hurdle) and I’d be worried how he’d react to being in a scrap with such a talented opponent. Finally, and most importantly, it’s become clear that whilst last season’s novices were a vintage crop, the more established chasers were an ordinary bunch. My gut feel is that he didn’t achieve that much and whilst I think the handicapper has underestimated Sprinter Sacre on 169, I’d be itching to take on Sanctuaire off 166 in a handicap.

                    That said, if he is ever to beat Sprinter Sacre it’s likely to be tomorrow. Whilst Sprinter Sacre will be pretty fit, Nicholls generally has his horses nearer their peaks at this time of year than Henderson does and Sandown is a front-runners course. The fences in the back straight take a lot of jumping and a front runner jumping as well as Sanctuaire did here last time, means even a single mistake by a pursuer can be really costly.

                    The question marks that remain over Sprinter Sacre are how he’ll cope with making a real error and what will he find off the bridle – neither has been tested yet. Whilst I expect Sanctuaire to go a breakneck gallop, I don’t think it will get Sprinter Sacre out of his comfort zone and Barry Geraghty is too experienced to panic if he’s a few lengths behind. In what’s effectively a match, their prices are about right so its one to just enjoy.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      From a betting point of view, there’s more scope in the clash of the Irish Gold Cup pretenders in the John Durkan over 2m4f at Punchestown on Sunday, where the ground looks likely to be really testing, (officially heavy).

                      Sir Des Champs (15/8) was favourite for the Gold Cup over the summer after a fine win in the Jewson over 2m5f and then taking a weak novice Grade 1 at Punchestown over 3m1f. He’s unbeaten in 7 races since coming over from France and it’s impossible to know how good he is. Willie Mullins thinks he’s a Gold Cup horse and his good record of backing up such public statements about horses, compared to other trainers, means that’s a tip in itself.

                      As a novice, he might have been beaten by Knockfierna at Limerick if she hadn’t run out and then scrambled home from Fists of Fury (who was being aimed at the 4 miler) at Leopardstown. That suggested he improved throughout last season and he may not be the type to go well fresh. He looked a good horse when winning the Jewson but if you take the view For Non Stop beat horses needing the run in the Old Roan, the form hasn’t worked out, (Cristal Bonus was sick so couldn’t give his running in the Jewson).

                      It doesn’t look as if Sir Des Champs is straightforward to train. I got the impression Mullins had to give him the kid glove treatment last season and the short term vibes weren’t positive at the beginning of this season. It wouldn’t surprise me if a clear round and a good performance was the aim on Sunday, with the Gold Cup the only race prioritised because he’s not the sort you can train hard all season.

                      Flemenstar (Evens) is a different type. Having been readily outpointed by Bog Warrior at Navan, he won 5 in a row, (reportedly comes on a lot for his first run of the season). That included a 19l demolition job in the Irish Arkle and an 11l rout in the Powers Gold Cup over 2m4f, to pick up 2 novice Grade 1s.

                      He has the advantage of a run this season – he dropped back to 2m in the Fortria and demolished Big Zeb (who gave 3lb) by an easy 7l. Big Zeb’s not the top class horse he was but he goes well fresh and looked a 160 horse last season, on which basis this was an impressive win from a horse needing the run, over too short a trip. This has always been his first big target of the season and with race fitness on his side and no question marks over the trip, if he can’t beat Sir Des Champs here then, rather like Sanctuaire, it’s hard to see him ever doing so as Sir Des Champs looks as if he’ll be better on decent ground later in the season.

                      Rubi Light’s (7/1) win in this last season doesn’t look anything like as good now and I was all set to suggest Flemenstar was one for those who like short prices to steam into, when to my surprise Bog Warrior (12/1) was declared, which has really thrown a spanner in the works. He was brilliant when beating Flemenstar at Navan and winning the Grade 1 Drinmore by a distance last season, but has always been fragile and hasn’t looked the same horse since taking a heavy fall at Leopardstown.

                      This time last year he was being hailed as much the best novice chaser in Ireland and the big question is whether he retains his ability. If he does 12/1 is the best value you’ll get all season. The fact that they’re running him here suggests that the same owners’ Sir Des Champs might not be at his peak and with the Flemenstar camp are making concerned noises about the ground, it’s possible there’ll be an upset.

                      My hunch is that we’ve seen the best of Bog Warrior and that Flemenstar will probably win pretty easily but 12/1 is a huge price for such a good horse and so is worth a small bet.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Donn

                        Rubi Light will probably lead in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown on Sunday – different role for Geraghty – and that should suit Flemenstar. Peter Casey’s horse should be able to sit in behind and take a nice lead, his fluent jumping enabling him stay close. Sir Des Champs shouldn’t be too far back. It will be the Willie Mullins-trained gelding’s seasonal debut, but we saw what Mullins can do with seasonal debutants in the Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse last Sunday, when Arvika Ligeonniere had his rivals stone cold by the time he reached the third last fence.

                        That said, Sir Des Champs has to start off somewhere this term, and you have to think that neither Mullins nor owner Michael O’Leary would want him to have a really hard race on his seasonal debut, when his entire season will funnel into the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

                        By contrast, Sunday could be Rubi Light’s Gold Cup. Robbie Hennessy’s horse loves soft ground, he loves going right-handed, two and a half miles is his trip, and he loves to jump out of soft ground. He is top class when he has these conditions. If you are hoping to see this season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Punchestown on Sunday, you will, of course, be disappointed if one of the top two doesn’t win the race, but 8.0 is probably too big about Rubi Light.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Mullins' Champs can see off Flemenstar

                          TWO of the brightest Gold Cup prospects to emerge in this country for some time go head-to-head in tomorrow's John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown.

                          Sir Des Champs – ante-post favourite for the marquee event at Cheltenham in March until last week's Hennessy hero Bobs Worth usurped him – makes its seasonal bow for Willie Mullins in the two-and-a-half-mile Grade One.

                          Curiously, however, he has been second-best in the market for this contest all week, with the race-fit Flemenstar, so convincing on its Navan return, trading a fraction shorter.

                          Twice successful at the highest level as a novice, Flemenstar's rise up the ranks for his colourful veteran handler Peter Casey has prompted comparisons with Tom Foley's golden Danoli era. Time will tell if that notion is born of romance or substance, but Andrew Lynch's exuberant partner – unbeaten in six – is certainly a contender.

                          Bog Warrior, the only horse to beat Flemenstar over fences when toppling him at Navan last year, will also line out in the €80,000 feature, having enjoyed a confidence-boosting rout over flights last week.

                          The field is completed by last year's winner Rubi Light, a solid performer at its best over this trip in the sort of testing conditions he is guaranteed to get here.

                          All told, though, it is Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar that represent the brightest long-term hopes, so it will be disappointing if they don't fulfil the potential of this hugely exciting clash. In the final analysis, Sir Des Champs is favoured to prevail.

                          Representing the champion trainer and the omnipotent Gigginstown Stud operation, the six-year-old is something of a Goliath to Flemenstar's David, but his record is flawless. Since joining Mullins, he has clocked up a winning sequence of seven, scored twice at the Cheltenham Festival and proved he won't want for stamina by ploughing through the mud over an extended three miles here in April.

                          In short, we have yet to see a hole of any description in Davy Russell's mount, so it's worth taking his fitness on trust ahead of this showdown.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Something's got to give in epic collision

                            Ever since David took on Goliath, history has been fixated with the head-to-head. The concept of the Olympics is founded on the notion. Sport, in particular, is elevated when a pair of supremely talented individuals face off. It satisfies some deep-seated human curiosity to discover who is the best. Every sport has its iconic rivalries: Borg-McEnroe; Prost-Senna; Ali-Frazier; Coe-Ovett.

                            In racing, you could argue that Frankel's unblemished career record is diminished by the absence throughout of a worthy rival. Excelebration was simply the whipping boy, and all season long – or until early September in any case – all everybody in racing longed for was a match between Frankel and Camelot.

                            This weekend we are spoiled. Not only do we have the classic head-to-head of a Manchester derby, but having had the two best young steeplechasers in Britain go at it at Sandown yesterday, we have the two best young chasers in Ireland coming together at Punchestown in the John Durkan today.

                            Even Timeform, in compiling its exhaustive Chasers & Hurdlers 2011/'12 annual, declared relative to Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar that "a meeting between the pair is something to look forward to".

                            Many will remember the match between Dawn Run and Buck House in 1986 for a pot of £25,000 at the Punchestown Festival. I remember skipping school to see Dawn Run meet Buck House in their first ever chase at Navan in 1984. Never had so many gone racing on a Thursday and the atmosphere of anticipation has remained with me since.

                            This afternoon's clash has all the hallmarks of head-to-head greatness. There is the David v Goliath element of champion trainer and tycoon owner confronted with the freak horse of a lifetime sourced by small-time connections for whom they have rejected countless jaw-dropping offers.

                            In addition, we have the irresistible ingredient of youth. Aged six and seven respectively, the protagonists' prime is still in the future. The world is still speculating as to what Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar might yet achieve, with the Gold Cup to the forefront of most everybody's mind in both cases.

                            Finally, there is the aspect of perfection. Both horses have successfully compiled an unbeaten sequence – a sequence that is about to be ruptured for one or other today. Sir Des Champs has won his last eight. He has never been beaten in seven runs over obstacles since joining Willie Mullins from France. For his side, since his debut second, Flemenstar has won six straight and stepped into open company by defeating a former Champion Chase winner in Big Zeb. Perfection will be dismantled for at least one party this afternoon.

                            What is even more fascinating, as is often the case with the iconic head-to-head, is the contrasting styles of the protagonists. Flemenstar is a giant, brutish to admire, but spectacularly elegant over a fence. He routinely destroys his opposition, winning by frequent double-figure margins. Sir Des Champs by comparison is unextraordinary in appearance and his method is all about efficiency. Just doing enough to get the job done. The mare Knockfierna nearly had him beaten before running out at Limerick last St Stephen's Day. The beauty about Sir Des Champs is that the efficiency is ruthless. To paraphrase Lewis Carroll, we don't know how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

                            All connected with both horses appreciate that while today is a significant battle, it isn't the war. Arguably circumstances favour Flemenstar more, with ground, distance and, crucially, the fact he has had a run this year tilting his chances into favouritism today. Furthermore, as a dual Cheltenham Festival winner already, Willie Mullins will have only one thing on his mind for his unbeaten six-year-old this year and that takes place in mid-March.

                            Consequently, while we are being entertained by the notions of a match we have two top-class horses in their own right in supporting roles. Bog Warrior is in fact the only horse to have beaten Flemenstar over fences, while Rubi Light has his optimum conditions today and is defending his Durkan crown from last year. So, all told, let the games unfold.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              GIBSON'S GUIDE: JOHN DURKAN CHASE 05 Dec 2012

                              Form Analyst Andy Gibson reveals his thoughts on this weekend's feature race.

                              A fascinating clash between three of Ireland's top chasers in recent years. This race could have a significant impact on the markets for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Ryanair Chase. As a spectacle in its own right, the 2012 line up should ensure a most exciting renewal of the John Durkan Chase.

                              FLEMENSTAR
                              He is unbeaten in his latest six chases after finishing a well-beaten runner-up to the potentially high-class Bog Warrior on his chasing debut at Navan in the middle of November 2011. He saved arguably his most impressive looking performance for his last race of the 2011/2012 season when he ran right away from Rathlin, False Economy and Call The Police in the home straight to take the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup by 11 lengths. The horses that followed him home are all rated in the mid to late 140s; therefore, one could say that Flemenstar should have beaten them easily if his connections have any aspirations of beating the best around this coming season.

                              Likewise, it is easy to pick holes in the form of his previous Grade 1 success in the Arkle Novice Chase at Leopardstown at the end of January 2012. The 5/2 shot, Blackstairmountain, was held up out the back and simply never got competitive. The second horse home, Gift Of Dgab, albeit beaten 19 lengths, is rated 138 over fences whilst the third home Notus De La Tour was rated 142 at the time and will be racing off 144 in future; furthermore, that David Pipe-trained chaser is rated well below the standard set by the best novice chasers seen in Britain last season.
                              *
                              It is obviously not the fault of Flemenstar that his rivals in the two top-class races he has run in have been unable to get anywhere near him; nevertheless, this still means that it is the style of those victories as much as, if not more than any substance to the form, which leaves him as one of the most exciting chasers in Ireland to look forward to in 2012/2013.*
                              *
                              When a horse has won three of his seven chases by double-figure margins it is important to take an extra look at his other races where, perhaps, he has been slightly less pleasing to the eye in the hope that they may offer some clues as to when and where he could be vulnerable in future. It is interesting to note that in his novice season his three least impressive performances came after breaks of 201, 42 and 42 days respectively; whereas, those wide-margin wins came on the back of much shorter* rest periods (14, 21 and 28 days). I think, at this stage, this is just something to bear in mind rather than get too carried away with; particularly because he appeared to run right up to his best first time out this season when winning the Fortria Chase from Big Zeb.
                              *
                              Bog Warrior beat him easily first time out last season before Flemenstar turned the form around in comprehensive fashion at Naas in March. This may have something to do with the different distances of those chases suiting one horse more than the other; conversely, it could equally be that Flemenstar needed his first run more than Bog Warrior. At this point in time, an open mind is probably the best stance to take until we gather further evidence. Nonetheless, it would be particularly informative and interesting should the two take each other on again in 2012.
                              *
                              Flemenstar is proven up to a distance of two and a half miles and is clearly an excellent chasing prospect. He may well take the ‘Big Zeb’ route and mop up small field weakly-contested graded chases in Ireland on testing ground. He will be hard to beat before the New Year in races like the John Durkan and Dial-A-Bet Chases in December at Punchestown and Leopardstown respectively. The Tied Cottage Chase back at Punchestown in late January will be another obvious target before his connections have to decide on his spring campaign. Last season they kept him in Ireland, partly, due to fears regarding his ability to travel and, although he is a year older and more experienced, this remains significant information when assessing his true place in the markets for the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. I would certainly avoid him as an ante-post proposition for whichever race he is quoted for in England until he proves that he can travel across the water and still perform to his best.

                              Comment

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