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Cheltenham Open Meeting - General Discussion

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  • Cheltenham Open Meeting - General Discussion

    Irish Raiders

    Cheltenham's three-day Open meeting gets under way this afternoon with a competitive spread that comprises no less than 18 Irish-trained runners.

    There is undoubtedly an element of quantity over quality to the delegation, but that's not to say that some don't boast decent chances.

    In the curtain-raising novices' chase, Gordon Elliott's 2011 Coral Cup hero Carlito Brigante, vanquished at Aintree last time, would have a chance under Davy Russell at its best.

    He just prevailed in a similar contest over course and distance last month, but that form has since taken knocks. In short, he may struggle to concede weight to the likes of Fingal Bay, Unioniste and Dynaste and the Grade Two novices' hurdles looks a similarly tall order for Magic Spear, Run With The Wind and Ted Dolly.

    With the excellent Fermoy-born, 7lb claimer Maurice Linehan up, Tony Martin's Salute Him is worthy of note off a low weight in the two-mile handicap chase, though our best chances may come in the last three races.

    In the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, Uncle Junior attempts to follow up last year's victory for Willie and Patrick Mullins. The JP McManus-owned Outlaw Pete – representing another father-son partnership in John and Josh Halley – bids to atone for running out at the second-last with the Cork Grand National at his mercy last time, but the pick must be Sizing Australia for an in-form Henry de Bromhead.

    Successful in the March equivalent in 2011, Andrew Lynch's mount is now 6lb better off with Balthazar King, which was seven lengths to the good when claiming the same race this year.

    In the conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle, Michael O'Hare's Turner Brown has an each-way chance under Eddie O'Connell, while Dessie Hughes and Nina Carberry team up with Jewel Of The West in the finale.

    While beaten three lengths by Hunters Lodge here last month, the latter is 4lb better off with him, and Hughes' team are in cracking shape.

    In tomorrow's showpiece Gold Cup, hopes of an Irish victory will lie with Casey Top, Questions Answered and Forpadydeplasterer.

    The Leonard Whitmore-trained Casey Top (10st) will be ridden by up-and-coming 5lb claimer Mark Enright, with Eric McNamara's Questions Answered (10st) due to be steered by Cork native Aidan Coleman.

    Galway's Paddy Brennan takes the reins on Forpadydeplasterer (10st 13lb). Tom Cooper's 10-year-old, making his handicap bow in the event, is the shortest priced of the Irish trio at 33/1.

    Grands Crus has hardened into 9/4 to deliver David Pipe back-to back wins following Great Endeavour's 2011 triumph, with Hunt Ball next at 6/1. Ruby Walsh's mount Al Ferof has eased to 15/2.

    On the eve of the season's first major Prestbury Park fixture, the British Horseracing Authority was urging trainers to be alert after an outbreak of equine herpes at Victor Dartnall's Devon stable. A BHA statement asked trainers to be "vigilant" for signs of the neurological virus.

    Meanwhile, Willie Mullins' Grade One-winning Boston Bob could make its fencing debut at Thurles next Thursday.
    Salute Him 25/1
    Turner Brown 18/1

    with StanJames

  • #2
    GeeGeez General Stats

    Cheltenham Open Meeting 2012 Trainers

    The big training battalions of Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson each send large raiding parties to this meeting, and each about breaks even. Indeed, if you’d staked £1 on every one of their collective 199 runners over the past five Cheltenham Open meetings, you’d have won £4.32 at Betfair SP!

    So, we won’t get rich (or poor) following that trio. Away from these big dogs, though, who are the lesser known handlers worth tracking here?

    The first name to note is Jonjo O’Neill, whose horses are in fair form at the moment. Four winners from nineteen runners since 2007 have netted £17.15 profit at Betfair SP. He currently has fourteen entries across the three days, but history shows he’s far more selective than that with those entries which actually run. Keep a close eye on his that go to post.

    And the other fellow to keep onside is Charlie Mann, whose ten runners in the last five years at this meeting, have bagged a brace of winners and £11.32 profit. He has declared Enter Paradise (due to run yesterday) and Seventh Sky (also entered at Wetherby) on Saturday.
    Age

    Age is material. Of the 89 winners at this meeting since 2007, only seven were aged in double figures. Moreover, of those seven, four won the Cross Country race. In other words, of the 84 main course winners, 81 of them were aged nine or younger. Don’t bother with the old boys here.
    Last Time Out Placing

    As you might expect at such a prestigious meeting, strong recent form is important. To that end, 51 of the 89 winners in the sample finished first (37) or second (14) last time out. A further 22 finished third to sixth last time out, meaning that 73 of the 89 winners were in the top six last time out.

    95 horses failed to complete on their previous start, and of those just four were able to win at this meeting. Each had either fallen (two) or unseated rider (two). Horses pulled up last time are 0 from 54 in the last five renewals of the Open Meeting.
    Days Since a Run

    Of the 89 winners at the meeting since 2007, 54 (61%) had run between seven and 45 days ago; and 29 (33%) had run between five months and a year ago (i.e. having their seasonal début).
    Odds

    In 89 races, only one horse priced longer than 20/1 was able to win at this meeting. The ‘sweet spot’ seems to be between 5/2 and 12/1, though of course it’s dangerous using odds ranges as a guide. Suffice it to say, if your horse starts at greater than 20/1 it almost certainly won’t be winning…

    ********

    So, ideal types for the meeting are aged nine or younger; with a top six finish last time out; 20/1 or shorter; and, having run within 45 days, or not since last season. Surprisingly, that excludes a fair number of well fancied horses each year.

    That completes the general principles, now let’s look at the Open Meeting race by race. Trends with thanks to Andy Newton.

    Comment


    • #3
      A couple more geegeez previews

      3.35 IRISH TIMES CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS´ HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3)

      9/10 Aged 4-6yo
      8/10 Trained by a Pipe (two), Henderson (three) or Irish (three)
      8/10 Irish (five) or French (three) bred
      6/10 11/1 or bigger
      5/10 Unplaced / did not complete last time out
      3/10 Won last time out
      2.5/10 Favourites won (two clear and one joint favourite)

      A difficult race. With a capital ‘D’. If you insist on wagering here, then at least insist on a double figure price, as six of the last ten winners have been. Nicky Henderson had won three in a row prior to last year, where he had to settle for second (and third!). You can count on the fact he will be trying to win again, so his pair of Titan De Sarti and Kings Lodge is an obvious starting point.

      Titan has the better form and the better jockey – at this stage of their careers at least – and looks interesting. He ran a pleasing fifth on his first UK start at this meeting in 2010, before finishing down the field in the Fred Winter of 2011. On his most recent start, and his first for a year, Titan ran third over a shorter trip here in a reasonable maiden hurdle.

      His breeding (by strong French sire, Kapgarde) gives hope that he’ll stay the 2m5f trip, and Jeremiah McGrath would have few superiors in the conditional riding ranks. An obvious bet in an impossible race.

      Kings Lodge has at least had a dig at the trip, on heavy ground, where he was outgunned into second. It could be that he got bogged down in the mud there, in which case he’d be a dark one, off a feasible mark.

      After the obvious then, it gets harder. Much harder. I’m inclined to look for trainers who excel in such handicap skirmishes: the likes of Pipe, O’Neill, and the Irish burglars. They are represented by Coffee (Jonjo); Waterunder, Top Wood (both David Pipe); Turner Brown, Slew Charm, Total Excitement, and Air Chief (Irish-trained).

      Well that doesn’t especially help! OK, I’ll cross out anything older than six as this looks a young equine’s game, and that removes Slew Charm, Total Excitement, Turner Brown and Air Chief, all of the Irish quartet.

      Jonjo’s Coffee, a dual handicap hurdle winner on good ground, was looking progressive prior to a sixth of eight last time on soft turf. It’s possible he needs it quicker, and it will be slightly more fleet underfoot here. He wasn’t beaten far in any case that last day, and Maurice Linehan is excellent value for his six pound claim in a race like this one.

      David Pipe was the man to deprive Hendo of the four-timer last term, and he’d been second in 2010 with Dynaste, too. As such, Waterunder and Top Wood command closer scrutiny. Waterunder hasn’t run since unseating rider when second (and held) in a Wincanton novice hurdle. As a previous three mile point winner, it’s likely the two mile trip there was against him. Any support – implying fitness – should be heeded, as this fellow must improve for a step up in distance.

      Top Wood is a simpler horse for which to make a case, having won four of his last five races, three of them in the French provinces. The ground will not be a concern, so long as it’s not too soft, and the manner of his last run – a win at Chepstow from Ulck Du Lin, the pair well clear – bellows ‘improver’.

      It’s entirely possible I haven’t mentioned the winner, and so be it: these races are generally beyond me. But with trainers on my side, I’ll roll with Messrs. Pipe and Hendo to make it five in a row in this race for the duo.

      Two against the field: Titan de Sarti 7/1 Ladbrokes, Top Wood 5/1 Ladbrokes
      Two more against the field: Kings Lodge 25/1 general, Waterunder 8/1 Ladbrokes

      Click here for the latest odds

      4.05 BATES HATS AMATEUR RIDERS´ HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3)

      10/10 Aged five to twelve (!)
      10/10 16/1 or shorter (7/10 9/1 or shorter)
      6/10 Trained by a Pipe (three) or Irish (three)
      6/10 Unplaced last time out
      2/10 Won last time out
      1.33/10 Favourites won (one and a co-fav of three)

      We round out day one of this three-dayer with an amateur riders’ handicap chase. Good news for bookmakers, precarious footing for impatient – and / or impetuous – gamblers. The range of ages of recent winners and the spread of odds, and the spread of trainers, pleads with punters to keep cash in pocket. This is not a ‘lucky last’ type of contest.

      However, as my remit is to analyze and interpret, allow me to offer a few pointers if I can. Firstly, the Pipe’s (Martin two and David one) have claimed three of the last ten renewals. They’ve also been responsible for two seconds and a fourth. Swing Bill and Alderluck are on the shortlist then.

      Swing Bill won this last year and was second the year before. But his recent form, 00P-P, does little to encourage investment. Precisely because of that, I may have half a crown each way, as the old boy clearly loves it here. His track record is 22710.

      Alderluck is younger and more interesting, to me at least. A relatively lightly raced nine year, this boyo can claim just 22 runs, nine of which were placed efforts and five of those winning efforts. Neither trip nor ground will faze him and, on his first venture to Cheltenham, he could go home a winner, and at a nice price too.

      If not Mr Pipe, then who will train this winner? I’ve no idea is the honest answer but, just for fun, let’s apply the filters mentioned at the top of the post: nine or younger, 20/1 or shorter, run in last 45 days (or five months to a year since), and a top six last time out.

      That would give us a shortlist of Jamsie Hall, Categorical, Aimigayle, Alderluck, Jewel of the West, Bescot Springs, There’s No Panic, and Hunters Lodge. Hmm, hardly illuminating.

      However, for my small stakes speculative here, I’ll scratch those who placed last time out (six of last ten winners were unplaced, and bigger prices too). Cheerio, then, to all bar Jamsie Hall, Categorical and Alderluck.

      Jamsie Hall is trained by – I think – the pilot of the 2002 winner, Gordon Elliot (certainly the 2002 winner was ridden by Mr G Elliott), and the trainer Gordon Elliott – whether he’s the same man as that jockey or not – trained the winner of this race in 2008, Hoopy. Jamsie Hall ran a very eye-catching fourth, sticking on, over a half mile less here last time out, and will be well fancied to go one, or two or three, better here.

      Categorical has been racing mainly in the north, and mainly on softer ground than this, and I’m finding it hard to muster much enthusiasm for his cause. He is consistent, and he does generally run his race, but it’s usually at a slightly lower level than he encounters this day. Not this time, not for me.

      Each way suggestions: Alderluck 8/1 bet365, Jamsie Hall 7/1 Ladbrokes
      Big priced, small stakes poke: Swing Bill 12/1 general

      Comment


      • #4
        Have are usual crew gone racing ...quiet here?

        Comment


        • #5
          On track ..

          Comment


          • #6
            Good day for nicholls and pipe

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by mayo View Post
              Good day for nicholls and pipe
              What about you Mayo...no aftertiming though

              Comment


              • #8
                Barry Geraghty's other rides Saturday. White Star Line got a mention before on horses to follow thread



                MY QUARTET ON A CRACKING UNDERCARD

                I start with a very good chance of a winner with VASCO DU RONCERAY (12:45) in the Triumph Hurdle Trial.

                AP rode him at Hereford on his British debut at the start of the month and while he might not have beaten much he could not have done it with any greater ease.

                There’s no telling how good this ex-French horse might be but he’s certainly gone the right way for Nicky because he gave me a great feel in a school on Friday morning - operated really well.

                Dessie Hughes has booked me for WHITE STAR LINE (1.20) in the Rewards4racing Novices’ Chase over an extended three miles and if he’s anywhere near the form he showed when finishing eight lengths second to Hunt Ball at the Festival then he’s right in the mix for this.

                This will be my first sit on him but I’m inclined to forgive the latest run at Cheltenham last month when he was going ok when a bad mistake four out did for him.

                I’m up for Dessie in the next, DONE DEAL (1.55) in the three and a half mile Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase which looks a winnable contest to me.

                This is another I’ll be getting on for the first time but having had a good look at him I’m sure he’s up to this level - and the most important factor is that I’m told he’s going to be very well suited by this trip.

                KING’S DESTINY (3.40) is another that I’m on for the first time in the two-mile Centaur Novices' Handicap Hurdle that finishes Saturday’s card.

                Now this one might be interesting because he was 100-plus on the flat when trained by the late Michael Jarvis and it could be that he’d taken time to get his act together with three runs over hurdles for Nicky in June and July having been off since October 2010.

                His hurdle mark is only 7lb higher than his best Flat rating.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Saturdays bet of the day ?

                  For the bet of the day I can't ignore the David Pipe yard seen as they are in such good form and in the preceeding race to the feature PROBLEMA TIC looks a good value punt at 8/1.

                  He was trained to five successes by Nicky Henderson and won on his debut for Pipe in impressive style at Ayr's Scottish National meeting.

                  Just 7lb higher for that success, he looks the type who can kick on now he's had another summer on his back, especially now tried over such an extreme trip for the first time.

                  Up against many an old plodder in this contest, he's one of few with an exciting, progressive profile and I'll take 8/1 that he can win this before going on to bigger and better things.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    AP on his rides ...

                    My pressure on Saturday is to go out and ride a winner at Cheltenham. Sea Of Thunder (1.20) is the my first ride of the day and he has a good chance of alleviating it. Sire Collonges beat us by two lengths at levels here last time so there shouldn’t be much between us again. Galaxy Rock (1.55) won this race last year and has a decent chance of a repeat, having run well here in October.

                    Nadiya De La Vega (2.35) won last time over the course, is fit and well but probably has it all to do in this better company. Grands Crus will be hard to beat, while I like Calgary Bay each-way. Buy Back Bob (3.40) has a chance in the last.

                    On Sunday I’m back at Cheltenham and start with Well Sharp (1.45), a decent Flat horse and a winner of two hurdles in the summer. I fear he might just lack a bit of experience for this. Darlan (2.50), second in the Supreme Novices at the Festival last March, has top weight but he needs to run very well if he is to confirm our hopes that he’s Champion Hurdle prospect. Bondage (3.25) is up in the weights a bit but may be my best chance of a winner.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sprinter View Post
                      What about you Mayo...no aftertiming though
                      Not good:o...should have backed River Maigue with Paddy Power. Course form proven again with Uncle Junior & Swing Bill.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Tom Lee

                        I
                        expect Sire Collonges to confirm novice chase form with Sea Of Thunder at 1.20pm.

                        Paul Nicholls’ exciting youngster beat Sea Of Thunder by two lengths at level weights here a month ago, but now has to try and concede a three pound penalty, something I reckon he’ll manage in style given his flamboyant jumping and free wheeling attacking style.

                        Contrast that with the blunders that seem to have characterised Sea Of Thunder’s chasing career to date, and you have decent grounds to back Sire Collonges to do the business at 15/8 with either bet365 or Sky Bet.

                        Both Masters Hill and Sraid Padraig will be decent value options in a hot race, but I think both will struggle to reel in one as as good as Sire Collonges, especially when he already has winning experience at this track in the locker.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Top jockeys ( Barry G , Paddy Brennan & Ruby in profit)

                          Runs 1st 2nd 3rd Prize Win% Profit% £1LS
                          R. Walsh 593 124 86 63 6,296,290 20 0 5.45
                          A. P. McCoy 741 119 106 85 5,028,288 16 -18 -139.16
                          Richard Johnson 636 85 86 77 3,574,983 13 -12 -77.45
                          Barry Geraghty 334 59 34 26 3,799,253 17 18 60.46
                          Timmy Murphy 518 57 49 41 2,269,553 11 -13 -70.06
                          Robert Thornton 433 47 41 50 2,513,003 10 -12 -53.98
                          Paddy Brennan 382 37 37 34 1,962,897 9 5 19.32
                          Noel Fehily 241 22 18 23 839,558 9 0 -0.7
                          Norman Williamson 128 19 16 10 647,263 14 -13 -16.66
                          Tom Scudamore 326 19 20 21 726,902 5 -52 -170.62


                          Top Trainers ( Johnjo & Ferdy )

                          Runs 1st 2nd 3rd Prize Win% Profit% £1LS
                          Paul Nicholls 974 150 127 103 7,355,061 15 -18 -180.26
                          Nicky Henderson 676 92 71 60 4,652,751 13 -3 -22.31
                          Philip Hobbs 711 85 78 78 3,079,409 11 -23 -166.21
                          Nigel Twiston-Davies 745 57 66 61 2,203,733 7 -28 -214.67
                          Jonjo O'Neill 454 56 52 30 2,753,016 12 7 34.36
                          Alan King 499 47 50 60 2,523,034 9 -34 -173.73
                          David Pipe 435 41 31 32 1,784,163 9 -21 -92.85
                          Venetia Williams 362 33 26 28 1,031,737 9 -12 -45.67
                          W. P. Mullins, Ireland 226 23 7 19 1,668,039 10 0 1.4
                          Ferdy Murphy 207 17 15 14 860,581 8 19 40.5

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            this one goes in bumper

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              18/11/2012 Lucky 15 Each-Way Maller Tree @ 15/2 (GP)
                              Win or E/W
                              13:45 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f Pending £30.00
                              Clondaw Knight @ 9/2 (GP)
                              Win or E/W
                              16:00 NATIONAL HUNT FLAT 2m 110y Pending
                              His Excellency @ 8/1 (GP)
                              Win or E/W
                              13:10 NOVICES CHASE 2m Pending
                              Glam Gerry @ 10/1 (GP)
                              Win or E/W
                              14:50 RACING POST HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 110y

                              Comment

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