Kerry National 15 Year Winners Trends and Stats

Wed, Aug 29th, 2012

The Guinness Kerry National is the feature and most valuable race at the Listowel Harvest Festival and for many marks the end of the summer jumping season and the beginning of the Irish National Hunt season proper.

The recent Kerry National roll of honour includes subsequent Aintree Grand National Winner Montys Pass and Cheltenham Festival Winner Doran's Pride.

It is run on the Wednesday of the Festival and we have gone through the 2012 Guinness Kerry National Entries and come up with out stats pick.

Kerry National Stats

Alfa Beat and Ponmeoath have been dual winners in the last five years.

Ponmeoath was best placed finisher of last years runners returning this year (and had been dropped 11lbs since 2011 but is ruled out on Age.

The last 8 winners have all been aged 8 or younger.

Rule out Casey Top, Fosters Cross,Themoonandsixpence,Premier Dane,Jamsie Hall,Ponmeoath,King Ali.

9 of the last 12 winners have carried 10-06 or more.

While never that happy ruling out horses becuase they are carrying too little weight we should exclude Save my Blushes,Quietly Fancied and Questions Answered. While he has had problems ruling out Questions Answered could be a mistake. His trainer,Eric McNamara ,has sent out of Ponmeaoath to win on two of the three occasions the weight stat has come unstuck.

If we stick with the weight stat our shortlist becomes:

Whodoyouthink, Alpine Eagle, Wellforth, Startmeup, Campbonnais, Deal Done and Caduceus.

Since 2000 the race has been won by just five jockeys. Apart from the retired Conor O'Dwyer jockeys enjoying multiple success in the Listowel feature have been Ruby Walsh (4 wins), Barry Geraghty (3 Wins), and Timmy MurCaduceusphy and Paddy Flood with two wins each.
Willie Mullins, Eric McNamara and Michael Hourican have been leading trainers with a couple of wins each.

Barry Geraghty rides Wellforth we wouldn't be sure he is well handicapped (up over a stone since Galway Blazers). The same thoughts apply to Whodoyouthink, Campbonnais and Deal Done. We aren't sure about Alpine Eagle over the trip.

That leaves us with Charie Swan's Start me up and Pat Hughes' Caduceus. They are our 2012 Kerry National stats picks.

Free Kerry National Bets

Kerry National Winners 1997 -2011

Year	Winner	Age	Jockey	Trainer	Weight	OR	SP
2011	Alfa Beat (IRE)	7	BJ Geraghty	Hanlon, J J	11-03	148	20-1
2010	Alfa Beat (IRE)	6	BJ Geraghty	Byrnes, C	10-10	137	6-1
2009	Northern Alliance (IRE)	8	R Walsh	Martin, A J	11-02	140	4-1
2008	Ponmeoath (IRE)	8	PW Flood	McNamara, E	10-05	135	9-1
2007	Ponmeoath (IRE)	7	PW Flood	McNamara, E	10-01	127	14-1
2006	Bothar Na (IRE)	7	R Walsh	Mullins, W P	10-13	127	10-1
2005	Euro Leader (IRE)	7	R Walsh	Mullins, W P	12-0	133	11-2
2004	Banasan (IRE)	6	R Walsh	OBrien, M J P	11-0	126	7-1
2003	Native Performance (IRE)	8	T Murphy	Hourigan, M	9-12	117	8-1
2002	Montys Pass (IRE)	9	BJ Geraghty	Mangan, J J	11-09	130	9-1
2001	More Than A Stroll (IRE)	9	C O'Dwyer	Moore, A L T	10-06	123	14-1
2000	Macs Supreme (IRE)	8	T Murphy	Murphy, F (UK)	10-09	111	6-1
1999	Lanturn (IRE)	9	PA Carberry	Hughes, P	9-00	128	7-1
1998	Treble Bob (IRE)	8	JR Barry	Weld, D K	9-12	112	8-1
1997	Dorans Pride (IRE)	8	R Dunwoody	Hourigan, M	12-0	0	5-4

Guinness Kerry National Odds 2012

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