One way to narrow the field for the Aintree Grand National is to look at the stats profile of previous winners.
There are a number of variables which can be looked at including the age of the horse, the weight the horse is carrying, where it was bred, starting price, previous course form, and the jockey or trainer. Lets us start by listing the winners since 1981 :
Year
Horse
Age
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
SP
Run
2015
Many Clouds
8
11-09
L P Aspell
O Sherwood
25/1
39
2014
Pineau De Re
11
10-06
L P Aspell
Dr RPD Newland
25/1
40
2013
Auroras Encore
11
10-03
Ryan Mania
Sue Smith
66/1
40
2012
Neptune Collonges
11
11-06
Daryl Jacob
Paul Nicholls
33/1
40
2011
Ballabriggs
10
11-00
Jason Maguire
Donald McCain
14/1
40
2010
Don't Push It
10
11-05
Tony McCoy
Jonjo O'Neill
10/1
40
2009
Mon Mome
9
11-02
Liam Treadwell
Venetia Williams
100/1
40
2008
Comply or Die
9
10-09
Timmy Murphy
David Pipe
7/1 JF
40
2007
Silver Birch
10
10-06
Robbie Power
Gordon Elliott IRE
33/1
40
2006
Numbersixvalverde
10
10-08
Niall Madden
Martin Brassil IRE
11/1
40
2005
Hedgehunter
9
11-01
Ruby Walsh
Willie Mullins IRE
7/1 F
40
2004
Amberleigh House
12
10-10
Graham Lee
Donald McCain
16/1
39
2003
Monty's Pass
10
10-07
Barry Geraghty
Jimmy Mangan IRE
16/1
40
2002
Bindaree
8
10-04
Jim Culloty
Nigel Twiston-Davies
20/1
40
2001
Red Marauder
11
10-11
Richard Guest
Norman Mason
33/1
40
2000
Papillon
9
10-12
Ruby Walsh
Ted Walsh IRE
10/1
40
1999
Bobbyjo
9
10-00
Paul Carberry
Tommy Carberry IRE
10/1
32
1998
Earth Summit
10
10-05
Carl Llewellyn
Nigel Twiston-Davies
7/1 F
37
1997
Lord Gyllene
9
10-00
Tony Dobbin
Steve Brookshaw
14/1
36
1996
Rough Quest
10
10-07
Mick Fitzgerald
Terry Casey
7/1 F
27
1995
Royal Athlete
12
10-06
Jason Titley
Jenny Pitman
40/1
35
1994
Miinnehoma
11
10-08
Richard Dunwoody
Martin Pipe
16/1
36
1993
Void Race
1992
Party Politics
8
10-07
Carl Llewellyn
Nick Gaselee
14/1
40
1991
Seagram
11
10-06
Nigel Hawke
David Barons
12/1
40
1990
Mr Frisk
11
10-06
Marcus Armytage
Kim Bailey
16/1
38
1989
Little Polveir
12
10-03
Jimmy Frost
Toby Balding
28/1
40
1988
Rhyme 'N' Reason
9
11-00
Brendan Powell
David Elsworth
10/1
40
1987
Maori Venture
11
10-13
Steve Knight
Andrew Turnell
28/1
40
1986
West Tip
9
10-11
Richard Dunwoody
Michael Oliver
15/2
40
1985
Last Suspect
11
10-05
Hywel Davies
Tim Forster
50/1
40
1984
Hallo Dandy
10
10-02
Neale Doughty
Gordon Richards
13/1
40
1983
Corbiere
8
11-04
Ben De Haan
Jenny Pitman
13/1
41
1982
Grittar
9
11-05
Mr Dick Saunders
Frank Gilman
7/1 F
39
1981
Aldaniti
11
10-13
Bob Champion
Josh Gifford
10/1
39
Using this data we can profile a typical Grand National Winner. What we seem to be looking for is a horse fitting these trends:
Age : As you can see in the last decade the winner has been aged either 9 or 10 on six occasions. Before Many Clouds last year Bindaree in 2002 had been the last 8 year old winner. The previous three winners were aged 11.
Weight : This has become tricky to call. Between 2009 and 2012 the winner carried 11st or more to victory. The advice used to be to rule these horses out. The 2013 and 2014 renewals had reaffirmed the old trend with 10 6 and 10 3 carried to victory in 2014 and 2013. Only one horse in the first 16 ( Rocky Creek 11-5) carried more than 11 st in 2014. Then Many Clouds wins in 2015 under 11 9 - the highest carried to victory since Red Rum in 1974.
Starting Price: Just five favourites have won in the past 30 years but you would just have about got your money back if you backed them all ! The Grand National is not quite the lottery some would have us believe. Mon Mome's success at 100/1 in 2009 and Aurora Encore at 66/1 in 2013 ( returned 133/1 on the tote) are real outliers in terms of price. The 2012 winner Neptune Collonges, Red Maurader and Silver Birch were next highest priced winners at 33/1. We normally advise to focus on the top 8 ( i.e. 20% of the field ) in the betting. Over the last twenty years over 65 % of the winners have come from this group.
Trainer: Paul Nicholls won this for the first time in 2012 and Nicky Henderson have yet to win this race. An Irish trained horse has not won since Silver Birch in 2007 but they should still be respected. Bobbyjo's win for the Carberry's in 1999 sparked a brief period of Irish dominance and they have won 6 of the last 16 (37%) renewals from c. 20% of all runners.
Previous Races : No winner since 1970 had failed to win over at least three miles beforehand. A trip over the fences is also a positive. 8 of the last 13 winners had had a trip over the fences beforehand. A run within 50 days is also preferred. Aldaniti in 1981 was the last to have had a prep run more than seven weeks beforehand.