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Grand National Stats 2016
Fri, Mar 18th, 2016

Aintree Grand National Trends 2015

One way to narrow the field for the Aintree Grand National is to look at the stats profile of previous winners.

There are a number of variables which can be looked at including the age of the horse, the weight the horse is carrying, where it was bred, starting price, previous course form, and the jockey or trainer. Lets us start by listing the winners since 1981 :

Year

 Horse

Age

Weight

 Jockey

 Trainer

SP

Run

2015

 Many Clouds

8

11-09

 L P Aspell

 O Sherwood

25/1

 39

2014

 Pineau De Re

11 

10-06

 L P Aspell

 Dr RPD Newland

25/1

 40

2013 

 Auroras Encore

11 

10-03 

 Ryan Mania

 Sue Smith

66/1

 40

2012

 Neptune Collonges 

11 

11-06 

 Daryl Jacob

 Paul Nicholls

33/1

  40 

2011

 Ballabriggs

10

11-00

 Jason Maguire

 Donald McCain

14/1

40

2010

 Don't Push It

10

11-05

 Tony McCoy

 Jonjo O'Neill

10/1

40

2009

 Mon Mome

9

11-02

 Liam Treadwell

 Venetia Williams

100/1

40

2008

 Comply or Die

9

10-09

 Timmy Murphy

 David Pipe

7/1 JF

40

2007

 Silver Birch

10

10-06

 Robbie Power

 Gordon Elliott IRE

33/1

40

2006

 Numbersixvalverde

10

10-08

 Niall Madden

 Martin Brassil IRE

11/1

40

2005

 Hedgehunter

9

11-01

 Ruby Walsh

 Willie Mullins IRE

7/1 F

40

2004

 Amberleigh House

12

10-10

 Graham Lee

 Donald McCain

16/1

39

2003

 Monty's Pass

10

10-07

 Barry Geraghty

 Jimmy Mangan IRE

16/1

40

2002

 Bindaree

8

10-04

 Jim Culloty

 Nigel Twiston-Davies

20/1

40

2001

 Red Marauder

11

10-11

 Richard Guest

 Norman Mason

33/1

40

2000

 Papillon

9

10-12

 Ruby Walsh

 Ted Walsh IRE

10/1

40

1999

 Bobbyjo

9

10-00

 Paul Carberry

 Tommy Carberry IRE

10/1

32

1998

 Earth Summit

10

10-05

 Carl Llewellyn

 Nigel Twiston-Davies

7/1 F

37

1997

 Lord Gyllene

9

10-00

 Tony Dobbin

 Steve Brookshaw

14/1

36

1996

 Rough Quest

10

10-07

 Mick Fitzgerald

 Terry Casey

7/1 F

27

1995

 Royal Athlete

12

10-06

 Jason Titley

 Jenny Pitman

40/1

35

1994

 Miinnehoma

11

10-08

 Richard Dunwoody

 Martin Pipe

16/1

36

1993

 Void Race

1992

 Party Politics

8

10-07

 Carl Llewellyn

 Nick Gaselee

14/1

40

1991

 Seagram

11

10-06

 Nigel Hawke

 David Barons

12/1

40

1990

 Mr Frisk

11

10-06

 Marcus Armytage

 Kim Bailey

16/1

38

1989

 Little Polveir

12

10-03

 Jimmy Frost

 Toby Balding

28/1

40

1988

 Rhyme 'N' Reason

9

11-00

 Brendan Powell

 David Elsworth

10/1

40

1987

 Maori Venture

11

10-13

 Steve Knight

 Andrew Turnell

28/1

40

1986

 West Tip

9

10-11

 Richard Dunwoody

 Michael Oliver

15/2

40

1985

 Last Suspect

11

10-05

 Hywel Davies

 Tim Forster

50/1

40

1984

 Hallo Dandy

10

10-02

 Neale Doughty

 Gordon Richards

13/1

40

1983

 Corbiere

8

11-04

 Ben De Haan

 Jenny Pitman

13/1

41

1982

 Grittar

9

11-05

 Mr Dick Saunders

  Frank Gilman

7/1 F

39

1981

 Aldaniti

11

10-13

 Bob Champion

 Josh Gifford

10/1

39

 

Using this data we can profile a typical Grand National Winner. What we seem to be looking for is a horse fitting these trends: 

Age : As you can see in the last decade the winner has been aged either 9 or 10 on six occasions. Before Many Clouds last year Bindaree in 2002 had been the last 8 year old winner. The previous three winners were aged 11.

Weight : This has become tricky to call. Between 2009 and 2012 the winner carried 11st or more to victory. The advice used to be to rule these horses out. The 2013 and 2014  renewals had reaffirmed the old trend with 10 6 and 10 3 carried to victory in 2014 and 2013. Only one horse in the first 16 ( Rocky Creek 11-5)  carried more than 11 st in 2014. Then Many Clouds wins in 2015 under 11 9 - the highest carried to victory since Red Rum in 1974.

Starting Price: Just five favourites have won in the past 30 years but you would just have about got your money back if you backed them all ! The Grand National is not quite the lottery some would have us believe. Mon Mome's success at 100/1 in 2009 and Aurora Encore at 66/1 in 2013 ( returned 133/1 on the tote) are real outliers in terms of price. The 2012 winner Neptune Collonges, Red Maurader and Silver Birch were next highest priced winners at 33/1. We normally advise to focus on the top 8 ( i.e. 20% of the field ) in the betting. Over the last twenty years over 65 % of the winners have come from this group.

Trainer:  Paul Nicholls won this for the first time in 2012 and Nicky Henderson have yet to win this race. An Irish trained horse has not won since Silver Birch in 2007 but they should still be respected. Bobbyjo's win for the Carberry's in 1999 sparked a brief period of Irish dominance and they have won 6 of the last 16 (37%)  renewals from c. 20% of all runners.   

Previous Races : No winner since 1970 had failed to win over at least three miles beforehand. A trip over the fences is also a positive. 8 of the last 13 winners had had a trip over the fences beforehand. A run within 50 days is also preferred. Aldaniti in 1981 was the last to have had a prep run more than seven weeks beforehand. 

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Grand National Meeting 2016 Previous Winners And 10 Year Trends

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