One way to narrow the field for the Aintree Grand National is to look at the stats profile of previous winners.

There are a number of variables which can be looked at including the age of the horse, the weight the horse is carrying, where it was bred, starting price, previous course form, and the jockey or trainer. Lets us start by listing the winners since 1981 :

Year	Horse	Age	Weight	Jockey	Trainer	SP	Run
2015	Many Clouds	8	11-09	L P Aspell	O Sherwood	25/1	39
2014	Pineau De Re	11	10-06	L P Aspell	Dr RPD Newland	25/1	40
2013	Auroras Encore	11	10-03	Ryan Mania	Sue Smith	66/1	40
2012	Neptune Collonges	11	11-06	Daryl Jacob	Paul Nicholls	33/1	40
2011	Ballabriggs	10	11-00	Jason Maguire	Donald McCain	14/1	40
2010	Don't Push It	10	11-05	Tony McCoy	Jonjo O'Neill	10/1	40
2009	Mon Mome	9	11-02	Liam Treadwell	Venetia Williams	100/1	40
2008	Comply or Die	9	10-09	Timmy Murphy	David Pipe	7/1 JF	40
2007	Silver Birch	10	10-06	Robbie Power	Gordon Elliott IRE	33/1	40
2006	Numbersixvalverde	10	10-08	Niall Madden	Martin Brassil IRE	11/1	40
2005	Hedgehunter	9	11-01	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins IRE	7/1 F	40
2004	Amberleigh House	12	10-10	Graham Lee	Donald McCain	16/1	39
2003	Monty's Pass	10	10-07	Barry Geraghty	Jimmy Mangan IRE	16/1	40
2002	Bindaree	8	10-04	Jim Culloty	Nigel Twiston-Davies	20/1	40
2001	Red Marauder	11	10-11	Richard Guest	Norman Mason	33/1	40
2000	Papillon	9	10-12	Ruby Walsh	Ted Walsh IRE	10/1	40
1999	Bobbyjo	9	10-00	Paul Carberry	Tommy Carberry IRE	10/1	32
1998	Earth Summit	10	10-05	Carl Llewellyn	Nigel Twiston-Davies	7/1 F	37
1997	Lord Gyllene	9	10-00	Tony Dobbin	Steve Brookshaw	14/1	36
1996	Rough Quest	10	10-07	Mick Fitzgerald	Terry Casey	7/1 F	27
1995	Royal Athlete	12	10-06	Jason Titley	Jenny Pitman	40/1	35
1994	Miinnehoma	11	10-08	Richard Dunwoody	Martin Pipe	16/1	36
1993	Void Race
1992	Party Politics	8	10-07	Carl Llewellyn	Nick Gaselee	14/1	40
1991	Seagram	11	10-06	Nigel Hawke	David Barons	12/1	40
1990	Mr Frisk	11	10-06	Marcus Armytage	Kim Bailey	16/1	38
1989	Little Polveir	12	10-03	Jimmy Frost	Toby Balding	28/1	40
1988	Rhyme 'N' Reason	9	11-00	Brendan Powell	David Elsworth	10/1	40
1987	Maori Venture	11	10-13	Steve Knight	Andrew Turnell	28/1	40
1986	West Tip	9	10-11	Richard Dunwoody	Michael Oliver	15/2	40
1985	Last Suspect	11	10-05	Hywel Davies	Tim Forster	50/1	40
1984	Hallo Dandy	10	10-02	Neale Doughty	Gordon Richards	13/1	40
1983	Corbiere	8	11-04	Ben De Haan	Jenny Pitman	13/1	41
1982	Grittar	9	11-05	Mr Dick Saunders	Frank Gilman	7/1 F	39
1981	Aldaniti	11	10-13	Bob Champion	Josh Gifford	10/1	39

 

Using this data we can profile a typical Grand National Winner. What we seem to be looking for is a horse fitting these trends: 

Age : As you can see in the last decade the winner has been aged either 9 or 10 on six occasions. Before Many Clouds last year Bindaree in 2002 had been the last 8 year old winner. The previous three winners were aged 11.

Weight : This has become tricky to call. Between 2009 and 2012 the winner carried 11st or more to victory. The advice used to be to rule these horses out. The 2013 and 2014  renewals had reaffirmed the old trend with 10 6 and 10 3 carried to victory in 2014 and 2013. Only one horse in the first 16 ( Rocky Creek 11-5)  carried more than 11 st in 2014. Then Many Clouds wins in 2015 under 11 9 - the highest carried to victory since Red Rum in 1974.

Starting Price: Just five favourites have won in the past 30 years but you would just have about got your money back if you backed them all ! The Grand National is not quite the lottery some would have us believe. Mon Mome's success at 100/1 in 2009 and Aurora Encore at 66/1 in 2013 ( returned 133/1 on the tote) are real outliers in terms of price. The 2012 winner Neptune Collonges, Red Maurader and Silver Birch were next highest priced winners at 33/1. We normally advise to focus on the top 8 ( i.e. 20% of the field ) in the betting. Over the last twenty years over 65 % of the winners have come from this group.

Trainer:  Paul Nicholls won this for the first time in 2012 and Nicky Henderson have yet to win this race. An Irish trained horse has not won since Silver Birch in 2007 but they should still be respected. Bobbyjo's win for the Carberry's in 1999 sparked a brief period of Irish dominance and they have won 6 of the last 16 (37%)  renewals from c. 20% of all runners.   

Previous Races : No winner since 1970 had failed to win over at least three miles beforehand. A trip over the fences is also a positive. 8 of the last 13 winners had had a trip over the fences beforehand. A run within 50 days is also preferred. Aldaniti in 1981 was the last to have had a prep run more than seven weeks beforehand. 

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Grand National Meeting 2016 Previous Winners And 10 Year Trends

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