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Epsom Oaks Stats
Wed, May 29th, 2013

11 fillies will line up for the 2013 investec Epsom Oaks on Friday.

Three fillies dominate betting. The Ralph Beckett-trained Secret Gesture, who is likely to start favourite after hammering her rivals in the Lingfield Oaks Trial; the Aidan O'Brien-trained Moth, who stayed on really well to snatch third in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas; and Liber Nauticus, the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes winner at York earlier in the month, trained by Sir Michael Stoute.

Secret Gesture, in whom Qatar Racing, a subsidiary of British Champions Series sponsor QIPCO Holding, yesterday bought a half share, looks the likely favourite. She won the Lingfield Oaks Trial by 10 lengths in a canter and has always been highly regarded by her stable.

Aidan O'Brien trains Moth and won this race last year with his outsider, Was. The mile of the QIPCO 1000 Guineas was always likely to be too short for her. Short of room when she made her challenge, she got to within 1 ½ lengths of the runner-up, Just The Judge, who was the impressive winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas last Sunday. There is a sense that Friday's mile and a half should suit the daughter of Galileo much better.

The track is seen as a concern for the big filly Liber Nauticus. She was very impressive at York and should relish the step up in trip, but will she be ready for the demanding Epsom track?

Banoffee is trained by Hughie Morrison who saddled Shirocco Star to finish second in this race a year ago. Unbeaten in two starts, her owners shelled out £30,000 to supplement her for the race at the weekend. If any filly can trouble the big three, it's likely to be Banoffee and with any amount of improvement likely, she must rate a real threat.

The last two winners of the Investec Oaks were both 20-1, while the 2010 winner was 9-1.

Go back to the previous decade, however, and six out of ten favourites won.

Have the last three years set a new trend or will we see a short-priced winner re-emerge?

Epsom Oaks Winners 2003-2012

Year

 Form

 Winner

 Trainer

 Jockey

SP

 2012

 1-3

 Was

 A O'Brien

 JA Heffernan

 20/1

2011

 2-12

 Dancing Rain

 W Haggas

 J Murtagh

20/1

2010

 12439-1

 Snow Fairy

 E Dunlop

 R Moore

9/1

2009

 1-41

 Sariska

 M Bell

 J Spencer

9/4f

2008

 1-2

 Look Here

 R Beckett

 S Sanders

33/1

2007

 1-11

 Light Shift

 H Cecil

 T Durcan

13/2

2006

 12-2

 Alexandrova

 A O'Brien

 K Fallon

9/4f

2005

 11

 Eswarah

 M Jarvis

 R Hills

11/4jf

2004

 13-1

 Ouija Board

 E Dunlop

 K Fallon

7/2

2003

 22-6

 Casual Look

 A Balding

 M Dwyer

10/1

 

Epsom Oaks Stats

Starting Price : Favourites have won 3 of the last ten but only one (Sariska in 2009) has won the race since Alexandrova. The last

Last Run: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their prep run (6 won). Only two of the last ten winners ran in the 1000 Guineas.

Stats Pick: ?

What do you fancy in the race ? Lets us have your Epsom Oaks tips on our forum. There are some different raceviews on our Epsom Oaks 2013 thread.

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