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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2012
Mon, Mar 12th, 2012

So thats it. CInders and Ashes wins for Jason Maguire and Donald McCain. Darlan finished a never closer second with Trifolium, Mountbazon and Prospect Wells all  tightly grouped behind. The front five pulled well clear of the pack lead by Allure of Illusion. Galileos Choice was backed into favouritism on the morning but couldnt get into comtention.

2012 Supeme Novices Hurdle Result

Pos

Dist.

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Age

SP

1

Cinders And Ashes

J M Maguire

D McCain Jnr

5

10-1

2

Darlan

A P McCoy

N J Henderson

5

7-1

3

nk

Trifolium (FR)

D N Russell

C Byrnes

5

15/2

4

hd

Montbazon (FR)

R Thornton

A King

5

15/2

5

½

Prospect Wells (FR)

R Walsh

P F Nicholls

7

14/1

6

8

Allure Of Illusion (IRE)

D J Condon

W P Mullins

6

40/1

7

s.h

Galileo's Choice (IRE)

Mr R P McNamara

D K Weld

6

6/1 f

8

Distant Memories (IRE)

A E Lynch

T J Taaffe

6

33/1

9

s.h

Tetlami (IRE)

B J Geraghty

N J Henderson

6

12/1

10

Vulcanite (IRE)

P J Brennan

C E Longsdon

5

22/1

11

½

Jimbill (IRE)

Aidan Coleman

Tim Vaughan

6

100/1

12

Agent Archie (USA)

Henry Brooke

D McCain Jnr

5

50/1

13

hd

Colour Squadron (IRE)

R Johnson

P J Hobbs

6

14/1

14

5

Steps To Freedom (IRE)

R M Power

Mrs J Harrington

6

13/2

15

s.h

Midnight Game

P Townend

W P Mullins

5

18/1

16

1

Dylan Ross (IRE)

P Carberry

N Meade

6

20/1

17

5

Hazy Tom (IRE)

N Fehily

C E Longsdon

6

33/1

18

4

Catch Tammy (IRE)

T Scudamore

D Pipe

6

20/1

19

1

Simenon (IRE)

D J Casey

W P Mullins

5

50/1

 Fat Jockey Supreme Novice Hurdle 2012 Trends

Form: 8 out of the last 10 Supreme winner have won last time out. Menorah 2010 and Arcalis 2005 were the exceptions.

Last Run: 9 out of the last ten have had a run within 45 days. Captain Cee Bee was the odd one out.

Age / Weight No strong trend. 5 and 6 year olds have won 8 out of 10 races but account for the total runners in about the same proportion. Only one four year old (Hors La Loi III in 1999) has won the race since 1973.

Jockey/Trainer  Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls have combined for two wins in the last ten years . Paul Carberry and Noel Meade have also combined to win two of the last eleven runnings of the race (Sausalito Bay (2000), Go Native (2009)). Willie Mullins (Tourist Attraction (1995), Ebaziyan (2007)), and Nicky Henderson(River Ceiriog (1986), Flown (1992)) have also saddled two winners of the race. While it has been 20 years since Henderson saddled his last winner of the race he did send out two (Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre) of the first three home in the 2011 renewal. Irish trained horses did have a good record in the race but the Nicholls/Hobbs winners in 2010 and 2011 have left it finely balanced with 6 Irish and 4 English trained winners in the last decade.

Starting Price A decade ago this was a favourites race but the recent trend has been towards longer prices with 5 of the last 7 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including Ebaziyan at 40/1. Favourites have finished 1 1 1 0 5 3 2/0/0 5 3 4 since 2002.

Breeding  Irish breds have won 7 of the last 10 and four of the last five races. Hard stat to get a handle on though as the first three home last year were all French bred with best Irish Bred  (5 runners in a field of 15) finishing 9th.

Supreme Novice Hurdle 2012 Trial Races This has been a difficult race to trend from trail races. Champion Bumper winners do not have a good record in the race. Montelado in 1992 was last to double up. 

Allure Of Illusion, Galileo's Choice, Montbazon, Simonsig and Tetlami are horses meeting the strong age and run trends. Some will consider Nicky Henderson's twenty year wait for a win in the race a negative for the last two.

 

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